3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,272 sqft ·
Built 1983
· Manufactured
· Active
· 195 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,574/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$262
Tax + insurance
−$83
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$331
Net cashflow
$899/mo
Annual
$10,784/yr
Cap rate
27.90%
Cash-on-cash
77.18%
DSCR
4.43
1% rule
3.15%
Cash to close
$13,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $899 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#561 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, commute A-; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D+, amenities F.
Porterville Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #302 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 27.9% vs local median 2.7% in Porterville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: exterior siding
— Peeling paint on exterior siding
Major: living room carpet
— Worn carpet in living room
Major: interior walls
— Peeling paint on interior walls
CashFlowRE · CFR-0TG7107ZJ1JQWH
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29