4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,476 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 45 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,400/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,367
Tax + insurance
−$434
HOA
−$64
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$504
Net cashflow
$31/mo
Annual
$372/yr
Cap rate
6.44%
Cash-on-cash
0.51%
DSCR
1.02
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$72,971
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($372/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (9.4% below list).
It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $240k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#342 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Sealy ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #405 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Selman El (math 31% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 639 students, 71% FRL); Sealy J H (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 664 students, 63% FRL); Sealy H S (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 903 students, 61% FRL).
Market conditions: 312 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 410 units permitted in Austin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Austin County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.6% in Sealy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: exterior siding
— Peeling and damaged
Major: roof
— Visible damage
Major: flooring
— Poor condition
Major: interior walls/paint
— Visible wear and tear
CashFlowRE · CFR-0THJH758EHZG5G
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29