3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
2,316 sqft ·
Built 1800
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 129 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,250/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,285
Tax + insurance
−$159
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$472
Net cashflow
$333/mo
Annual
$4,000/yr
Cap rate
7.93%
Cash-on-cash
5.83%
DSCR
1.26
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$68,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (8.2% below list).
It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#367 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Altavista Elementary (math 59% / reading 64%, grade B, #516 of 1,108 statewide, top 47%, 500 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 37% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1800 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).
Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $45k; list at $245k implies a 444% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.9% in Altavista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1800 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0THY8W9JNPGFGY
· Data 19 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29