122 W South St St

Geneseo, IL 61254

$189,000B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,092 sqft · Built 1902 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $729/mo
• Annual: $8,750/yr
• Cap rate: 10.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.53%
• DSCR: 1.74
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $729 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#45 in IL, #907 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, commute F.
• Geneseo CUSD 228 (town): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #297 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 32 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 6.5% in Geneseo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.