4638 Pondview Cir

Big Lake, MN 55309

$299,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,481/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$426
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-464/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.55%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-464/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (17.3% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $248k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#84 in MN, #1,950 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Big Lake Public School District (town): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #78 of 301 in MN (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Independence Elementary (math 53% / reading 57%, grade C, #310 of 857 statewide, top 37%, 660 students, 40% FRL); Big Lake Middle School (math 43% / reading 52%, grade C-, #93 of 258 statewide, top 37%, 686 students, 40% FRL); Big Lake Senior High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #111 of 471 statewide, top 26%, 899 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 19% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 334 units permitted in Sherburne County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 25% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $255k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Big Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.