5018 Banksly Cir

Moody AFB, GA 31605

$125,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1982 · Other · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,476/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $303/mo
• Annual: $3,630/yr
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.37%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#236 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pine Grove Elementary School (math 62% / reading 54%, grade C+, #143 of 1,228 statewide, top 12%, 664 students, 56% FRL); Pine Grove Middle School (math 56% / reading 57%, grade B, #48 of 470 statewide, top 10%, 742 students, 50% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $125k implies a 594% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.