125 Fayette Cir

Saraland, AL 36571

$223,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,376 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,584/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-88/mo
• Annual: $-1,055/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.69%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $62,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $223k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (29.0% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#72 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Saraland City (suburban): math 53% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #6 of 129 in AL (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Saraland Elementary School (math 71% / reading 82%, grade A, #12 of 627 statewide, top 2%, 958 students, 49% FRL); Saraland High School (math 34% / reading 48%, grade F, #31 of 305 statewide, top 10%, 1,096 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Saraland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.