Riverwood Lot #111 Plan

Bellevue, MI 49021

$39,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 210 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,206/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax + insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$550
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $133/mo
• Annual: $1,596/yr
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.62%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 3.09%
• Cash to close: $10,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $39k).
• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $34k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#355 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Bellevue Community Schools (rural): math 14% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #445 of 540 in MI (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 98 units permitted in Eaton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Eaton County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.3% in Bellevue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: roof — No visible damage