4920 Hansard Dr

Cumming, GA 30040

$199,994B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,657/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $832/mo
• Annual: $9,989/yr
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.84%
• DSCR: 1.79
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $55,998

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $832 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#29 in GA, #3,797 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Forsyth County (suburban): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 174 in GA (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 896 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,525 units permitted in Forsyth County in 2024 (810 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Forsyth County population projected at +71% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $200k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.8% in Cumming — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.