2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,440 sqft ·
Built 1975
· Manufactured
· Active
· 37 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,270/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,463
Tax + insurance
−$465
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$897
Net cashflow
$1,445/mo
Annual
$17,344/yr
Cap rate
12.51%
Cash-on-cash
22.20%
DSCR
1.99
1% rule
1.53%
Cash to close
$78,120
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $279k).
It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $271k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#54 in CA, #2,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
San Dieguito Union High (urban): math 72% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #56 of 1,400 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Park Dale Lane Elementary (437 students, 30% FRL); Oak Crest Middle (802 students, 24% FRL); Canyon Crest Academy (2,336 students, 11% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 208 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 1.6% in Encinitas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($159k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0XXH93DA7ZRZJN
· Data 22 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29