10838 Spruce Dr S

La Porte, TX 77571

$262,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,448 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,324/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax + insurance: −$771
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-321/mo
• Annual: $-3,854/yr
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.25%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $73,360

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $262k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-321 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#360 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• La Porte ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #260 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $262k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in La Porte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.