3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,145 sqft ·
Built 1990
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,442/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,044
Tax + insurance
−$249
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$303
Net cashflow
$-154/mo
Annual
$-1,843/yr
Cap rate
5.37%
Cash-on-cash
-3.31%
DSCR
0.85
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$55,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (13.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (27.5% below list).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $144k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#45 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Hinds County School District (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #70 of 130 in MS (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Gary Road Elementary (672 students, 100% FRL); Byram Middle School (math 29% / reading 29%, grade F, #90 of 179 statewide, top 52%, 772 students, 100% FRL); Terry High School (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #128 of 197 statewide, top 65%, 1,098 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.2% in Byram — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0YT5QP9V02QJAP
· Data 21 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29