521 Kensington Rd

Syracuse, NY 13210

$249,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · Built 1932 · SingleFamily · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,831/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$239
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-99/mo
• Annual: $-1,189/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.71%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (26.5% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Edward Smith K-8 School (math 13% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,816 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 710 students, 69% FRL); Expeditionary Learning Middle School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #611 of 729 statewide, top 88%, 170 students, 76% FRL); Nottingham High School (math 75% / reading 77%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 1,226 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools at 75% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 22% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Syracuse City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.2%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $108k; list at $249k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $1,831/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2307% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.