2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,300 sqft ·
Built 2004
· Manufactured
· Active
· 77 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,377/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$655
Tax + insurance
−$208
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$499
Net cashflow
$1,014/mo
Annual
$12,169/yr
Cap rate
16.03%
Cash-on-cash
34.77%
DSCR
2.55
1% rule
1.90%
Cash to close
$34,997
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#136 in CA, #4,755 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
Rocklin Unified (suburban): math 44% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #96 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).
Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 2.7% in Rocklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-0ZDWP23T1RYP33
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29