2013 Arkansas Ave

Poplar Bluff, MO 63901

$119,900C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1979 · Other · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,201/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $80/mo
• Annual: $956/yr
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.28%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($956/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#143 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Poplar Bluff R-I (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #127 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eugene Field Elem. (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B+, #46 of 1,115 statewide, top 5%, 272 students, 99% FRL); Poplar Bluff High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #356 of 521 statewide, top 71%, 1,504 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 56% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Butler County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.5% in Poplar Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.