1025 Martin St #10

Lakeport, CA 95453

$32,900D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1979 · Land · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,560/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax + insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $1,023/mo
• Annual: $12,271/yr
• Cap rate: 43.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 133.20%
• DSCR: 6.93
• 1% rule: 4.74%
• Cash to close: $9,212

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $33k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $33k).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $31k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $227 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $987 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#925 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Lakeport Unified (town): math 13% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #451 of 517 in CA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 43.6% vs local median 3.3% in Lakeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.