24 bd · 4.0 ba ·
2,806 sqft ·
Built 1971
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 150 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$11,419/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$6,770
Tax + insurance
−$2,032
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,398
Net cashflow
$219/mo
Annual
$2,625/yr
Cap rate
6.89%
Cash-on-cash
2.14%
DSCR
1.10
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$361,480
Investor read
This is a 4 × 6-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.29M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $55/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.14M (11.5% below list).
It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.14M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.14M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#419 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Orange Grove Elementary School (math 82% / reading 72%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 435 students, 43% FRL); Seminole Middle School (math 55% / reading 53%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 824 students, 49% FRL); Seminole High School (math 26% / reading 47%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,546 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 575 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $106k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $934k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 0.5% in Madeira Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $11,419/mo this rent would consume 166% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 734% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
CashFlowRE · CFR-114N94EDGXR50S
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29