2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,364 sqft ·
Built 1971
· Condo
· Pending
· 159 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,625/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$227
HOA
−$505
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$551
Net cashflow
$372/mo
Annual
$4,463/yr
Cap rate
8.71%
Cash-on-cash
8.62%
DSCR
1.38
1% rule
1.42%
Cash to close
$51,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $185k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $185k).
It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Palma Sola Elementary School (math 72% / reading 59%, grade B+, #500 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 434 students, 56% FRL); Manatee High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,983 students, 59% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 510 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $78k; list at $185k implies a 136% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-114TW08HM3EV53
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29