2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
877 sqft ·
Built 1945
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 30 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,097/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$507
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$860
Net cashflow
$1,261/mo
Annual
$15,136/yr
Cap rate
11.70%
Cash-on-cash
19.31%
DSCR
1.86
1% rule
1.46%
Cash to close
$78,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $280k).
It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $276k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Herrera El (math 36% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,965 of 4,322 statewide, top 46%, 828 students, 91% FRL); Burbank Middle (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 1,417 students, 96% FRL); Houston Math Science And Technology Center (math 9% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 2,779 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 285 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,097/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 1354% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-11H1WR39MWX9FB
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29