17823 Garden Grove Way

Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$405,363D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,529 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,259/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,126
• Tax + insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$266
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-214/mo
• Annual: $-2,563/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $113,502

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $405k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-214 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $368k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $326k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.