421 Peonia Rd

Clarkson, KY 42726

$129,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1978 · Other · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $858/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $-104/mo
• Annual: $-1,242/yr
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.44%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (14.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (33.5% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#301 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Grayson County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #84 of 165 in KY (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clarkson Elementary School (math 33% / reading 44%, grade F, #234 of 676 statewide, top 36%, 609 students, 65% FRL); Grayson County Middle School (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #143 of 217 statewide, top 67%, 839 students, 63% FRL); Grayson County High School (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #118 of 254 statewide, top 47%, 1,252 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $129k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.0% in Clarkson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.