49230 Chestnut Hill Ct

Shelby, MI 48315

$259,900F

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,800 sqft · Built 1987 · Condo · Pending · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,629/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$289
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-798/mo
• Annual: $-9,581/yr
• Cap rate: 2.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.17%
• DSCR: 0.41
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-798 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (44.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (37.3% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (44.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Issac Monfort Elementary School (math 43% / reading 57%, grade D+, #371 of 1,397 statewide, top 27%, 533 students, 38% FRL); Utica High School (math 33% / reading 62%, grade D, #185 of 713 statewide, top 26%, 1,368 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 3.4% in Shelby — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.