1071 Middleton Run Rd

Elkhart, IN 46516

$160,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,314/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-133/mo
• Annual: $-1,590/yr
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.55%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (17.9% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#224 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
• Concord Community Schools (suburban): math 24% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #226 of 301 in IN (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 484 units permitted in Elkhart County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Elkhart County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.0% in Elkhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.