6100 Chickadee

Avilla, AR 72002

$189,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 167 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,469/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $20/mo
• Annual: $238/yr
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($238/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (22.3% below list).
• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#146 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bryant School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 238 in AR (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bryant Elementary School (math 53% / reading 42%, grade D, #116 of 454 statewide, top 26%, 771 students, 51% FRL); Bryant High School (math 32% / reading 50%, grade F, #43 of 292 statewide, top 15%, 2,199 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 32% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 446 units permitted in Saline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saline County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $189k implies a 1354% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.6% in Avilla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.