840 Bel Air Ln

DeKalb, IL 60115

$78,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Built 2026 · Manufactured · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,783/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $869/mo
• Annual: $10,430/yr
• Cap rate: 19.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.76%
• DSCR: 3.12
• 1% rule: 2.29%
• Cash to close: $21,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $869 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#154 in IL, #2,835 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, schools D, crime D-.
• Dekalb CUSD 428 (suburban): math 11% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #541 of 620 in IL (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 260 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• DeKalb County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 4.3% in DeKalb — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,783/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 3794% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.