Ashford Plan

Wentzville, MO 63385

$343,900F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,548 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,140
• Tax + insurance: −$680
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-806/mo
• Annual: $-9,671/yr
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.46%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $114,266

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $344k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-806 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (25.9% below list).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($303k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $255k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in MO, #1,402 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Peine Ridge Elem. (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #592 of 1,115 statewide, top 54%, 531 students, 20% FRL); Wentzville Middle (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #172 of 391 statewide, top 46%, 794 students, 19% FRL); Emil E. Holt Sr. High (math 48% / reading 58%, grade C-, #88 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 1,273 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 700 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.