4 bd · 4.5 ba ·
2,791 sqft ·
Built 1984
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 104 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,652/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$886
Tax + insurance
−$870
HOA
−$401
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$557
Net cashflow
$-62/mo
Annual
$-749/yr
Cap rate
10.60%
Cash-on-cash
15.38%
DSCR
1.68
1% rule
1.57%
Cash to close
$47,320
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $169k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-749/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (6.5% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $169k).
It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $154k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in LA, #2,302 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Joseph B. Lancaster Elementary School (math 58% / reading 73%, grade B+, #38 of 646 statewide, top 6%, 1,505 students, 21% FRL); Madisonville Junior High School (math 41% / reading 58%, grade C, #28 of 218 statewide, top 13%, 655 students, 21% FRL); Mandeville High School (math 59% / reading 63%, grade C+, #19 of 265 statewide, top 7%, 2,259 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 21% FRL vs 40% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
Market conditions: 249 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.5% in Madisonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1505HQEZA2QG8N
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29