6028 James Rd

Oregon, OH 43616

$137,900C+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,148 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,591/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$723
• Tax + insurance: −$620
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-86/mo
• Annual: $-1,035/yr
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.58%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $38,612

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (11.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $953 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#210 in OH, #3,303 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Oregon City (rural): math 48% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #384 of 656 in OH (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jerusalem Elementary School (math 77% / reading 67%, grade A-, #323 of 1,584 statewide, top 23%, 396 students, 34% FRL); Clay High School (math 27% / reading 69%, grade D, #429 of 781 statewide, top 55%, 1,139 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.2% in Oregon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.