311 Longleaf Dr

Flowood, MS 39232

$273,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,707 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 186 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $-59/mo
• Annual: $-713/yr
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $76,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-713/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (3.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (24.1% below list).
• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Flowood Elementary School (math 48% / reading 51%, grade D, #65 of 375 statewide, top 20%, 489 students, 99% FRL); Northwest Rankin Middle School (math 63% / reading 51%, grade B, #13 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,374 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin High School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #34 of 197 statewide, top 17%, 1,898 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $76k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.