3532 Mildred Way

Jacksonville, FL 32254

$316,990D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,003 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 188 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,964/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,662
• Tax + insurance: −$213
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-357/mo
• Annual: $-4,284/yr
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.83%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $88,757

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $317k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-357 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (38.0% below list).
• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pickett Elementary School (math 57% / reading 37%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 200 students, 73% FRL); James Weldon Johnson College Prepartory Middle School (math 76% / reading 80%, grade A+, #26 of 571 statewide, top 4%, 986 students, 29% FRL); William M. Raines High School (math 14% / reading 13%, grade F, #616 of 667 statewide, top 92%, 1,217 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $1,964/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 882% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.