31 CR 815

Blue Mountain, MS 38610

$235,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,424 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,241/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-441/mo
• Annual: $-5,292/yr
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.04%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-441 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (33.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (47.2% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (47.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#144 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• South Tippah School District (town): math 43% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #42 of 130 in MS (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Tippah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tippah County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.