15966 Winding Bluff Dr

Montverde, FL 34756

$589,000D+

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,888 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Pending · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,117/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,089
• Tax + insurance: −$1,020
• HOA: −$160
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,075
• Net cashflow: $-226/mo
• Annual: $-2,714/yr
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.65%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $164,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $589k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $549k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $512k (13.1% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($571k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $512k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#598 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grassy Lake Elementary School (math 58% / reading 63%, grade B-, #664 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 1,209 students, 29% FRL); East Ridge Middle School (math 62% / reading 59%, grade B+, #131 of 571 statewide, top 23%, 1,182 students, 29% FRL); Lake Minneola High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,176 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.3% in Montverde — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,117/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($108k/yr) (locally 24% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.