860 Flanders Rd

Flanders, NY 11901

$549,999B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 234 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $15,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$483
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,150
• Net cashflow: $8,482/mo
• Annual: $101,788/yr
• Cap rate: 24.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.10%
• DSCR: 3.94
• 1% rule: 2.73%
• Cash to close: $154,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($102k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $550k).
• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $484k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,107 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $550k implies a 1471% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $154k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.