3007 Erdman Ave

Baltimore, MD 21213

$72,000A-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Built 1923 · Townhouse · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,815/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$378
• Tax + insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $827/mo
• Annual: $9,929/yr
• Cap rate: 20.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.25%
• DSCR: 3.19
• 1% rule: 2.52%
• Cash to close: $20,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $72k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $827 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $72k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $89 of equity ($498 loan paydown + $-409 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: The Belair-Edison School (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #674 of 860 statewide, top 79%, 1,013 students, 87% FRL, charter); Vanguard Collegiate Middle (math 3% / reading 15%, grade F, #212 of 225 statewide, top 95%, 343 students, 84% FRL); Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #22 of 222 statewide, top 10%, 1,555 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 12 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.