388 Davis Mill Rd

Parsons, TN 38363

$59,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1978 · Other · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $799/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax + insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $223/mo
• Annual: $2,681/yr
• Cap rate: 10.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.23%
• DSCR: 1.72
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $16,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $59k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($799 rent vs $59k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#288 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur County (rural): math 45% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #19 of 139 in TN (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parsons Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #119 of 952 statewide, top 14%, 376 students, 0% FRL); Riverside High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #104 of 332 statewide, top 33%, 460 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Decatur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Decatur County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.