3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,465 sqft ·
Built 1998
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 32 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,000/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,389
Tax + insurance
−$623
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$420
Net cashflow
$-432/mo
Annual
$-5,184/yr
Cap rate
4.34%
Cash-on-cash
-6.99%
DSCR
0.69
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$74,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-432 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (28.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (24.5% below list).
It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $189k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#165 in TX, #4,376 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Prairie View El (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,221 of 4,322 statewide, top 75%, 631 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 22% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Northwest ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-18GNKMBHS4M8M7
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29