1329 Magnolia Church Rd

Stedman, NC 28351

$155,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,693 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Pending · 182 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,212/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-66/mo
• Annual: $-795/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-795/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $749 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#107 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stedman Elementary (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #302 of 1,410 statewide, top 23%, 271 students, 99% FRL); Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $155k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.3% in Stedman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.