312 W Springcreek

Olney, TX 76374

$30,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $990/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $581/mo
• Annual: $6,967/yr
• Cap rate: 29.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.94%
• DSCR: 4.69
• 1% rule: 3.30%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $581 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $30k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $616 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#557 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Olney ISD (town): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #150 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Olney El (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 363 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 53% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Olney ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Young County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Young County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.