45 47 Ayrault St

Providence, RI 02908

$525,000C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,495 sqft · Built 1920 · MultiFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,562/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax + insurance: −$710
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,168
• Net cashflow: $930/mo
• Annual: $11,165/yr
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.60%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $147,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $525k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $930 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $465/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $525k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($517k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $517k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#2 in RI, #794 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F.
• Providence (urban): math 8% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #34 of 39 in RI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $525k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $147k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.2% in Providence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,562/mo this rent would consume 91% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1561% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.