195 Tierra Rejada Rd #55

Simi Valley, CA 93065

$269,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Pending · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,366/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax + insurance: −$448
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $800/mo
• Annual: $9,600/yr
• Cap rate: 9.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.75%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $75,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $269k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $800 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $269k).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $253k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#456 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute D-, cost of living F.
• Simi Valley Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #170 of 517 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hollow Hills Elementary (math 54% / reading 68%, grade B, #222 of 1,571 statewide, top 14%, 637 students, 38% FRL); Sinaloa Middle (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #166 of 498 statewide, top 34%, 775 students, 49% FRL); Royal High (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #750 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 1,973 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 25% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 210 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $269k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.0% in Simi Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.