1053 Mary St

Greenville, TX 75474

$285,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,012 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,691/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$567
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-726/mo
• Annual: $-8,710/yr
• Cap rate: 3.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.91%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-726 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (45.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (40.7% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (45.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#78 in TX, #2,719 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Lone Oak ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #310 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lone Oak El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 489 students, 45% FRL); Lone Oak Middle (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 254 students, 48% FRL); Lone Oak H S (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 340 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 4.1% in Greenville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.