2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
760 sqft ·
Built 1977
· Other
· Pending
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,655/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$213
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$558
Net cashflow
$836/mo
Annual
$10,033/yr
Cap rate
11.31%
Cash-on-cash
17.92%
DSCR
1.80
1% rule
1.33%
Cash to close
$55,997
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $836 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $268 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 55/100 on livability (#344 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment B+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D-, amenities F.
Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Cache La Poudre Elementary School (math 44% / reading 37%, grade F, #342 of 966 statewide, top 36%, 298 students, 32% FRL); Cache La Poudre Middle School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #56 of 270 statewide, top 23%, 324 students, 28% FRL); Poudre High School (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #131 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,663 students, 38% FRL).
Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $168k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.1% in Red Feather Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1AQKPD6Z33SPPD
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29