9781 Red Oak Rd

Red Oak, NC 27891

$125,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,214/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $190/mo
• Annual: $2,285/yr
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.53%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (2.9% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $121k (2.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#216 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Nash-Rocky Mount Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #155 of 178 in NC (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Red Oak Elementary (222 students, 60% FRL); Red Oak Middle (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 804 students, 64% FRL); Northern Nash High (math 37% / reading 41%, grade F, #402 of 535 statewide, top 75%, 1,059 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 500 units permitted in Nash County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nash County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 1.6% in Red Oak — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.