10715 Dogwood Sky Dr

Kendleton, TX 77417

$259,990C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,595 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 143 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,375/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$88
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-8/mo
• Annual: $-102/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $72,797

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-102/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (8.7% below list).
• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $229k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,021 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.