17442 Nature Walk Trl #105

Parker, CO 80134

$265,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 925 sqft · Built 2006 · Condo · Active · 220 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,352/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$274
• HOA: −$291
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-97/mo
• Annual: $-1,162/yr
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (11.2% below list).
• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $233k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#7 in CO, #1,304 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Douglas County School District No. RE-1 (suburban): math 45% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #7 of 86 in CO (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sierra Middle School (math 32% / reading 59%, grade D+, #52 of 270 statewide, top 19%, 779 students, 17% FRL); Chaparral High School (math 53% / reading 72%, grade B-, #41 of 381 statewide, top 11%, 2,009 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 766 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,131 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (950 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $85k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.0% in Parker — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?