3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,092 sqft ·
Built 1952
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 42 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,128/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$288
Tax + insurance
−$539
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$237
Net cashflow
$63/mo
Annual
$761/yr
Cap rate
17.00%
Cash-on-cash
38.25%
DSCR
2.70
1% rule
2.05%
Cash to close
$15,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($761/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $845 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools F, crime F.
Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $7k; list at $55k implies a 684% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($31k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-1B83X223D89VSK
· Data 7 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29