3365 Johnston County Rd

Coats, NC 27501

$249,990F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,613/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-238/mo
• Annual: $-2,861/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.09%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $69,997

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (35.5% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $161k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#430 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Harnett County Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #130 of 178 in NC (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Angier Elementary (math 21% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,218 of 1,410 statewide, top 87%, 356 students, 80% FRL); Harnett Central Middle (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #323 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 1,024 students, 63% FRL); Harnett Central High (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #334 of 535 statewide, top 64%, 1,474 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 51% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 662 active listings in the ZIP; 2,080 units permitted in Harnett County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harnett County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in Coats — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.