94 Oriole Ave

Keene, NH 03431

$168,500C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 2020 · Manufactured · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,294/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$884
• Tax + insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $605/mo
• Annual: $7,259/yr
• Cap rate: 10.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.39%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $47,180

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#4 in NH, #192 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Keene School District (town): math 26% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #76 of 98 in NH (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 166 units permitted in Cheshire County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cheshire County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $168k implies a 1674% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.2% in Keene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.