8525 E Pasadena Ave

Scottsdale, AZ 85250

$949,800D

7 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,614 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,727/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,981
• Tax + insurance: −$609
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,413
• Net cashflow: $-276/mo
• Annual: $-3,310/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $265,944

Investor read

• This is a 7-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $950k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-276 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $901k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $673k (29.2% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($893k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $673k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cheyenne Traditional School (math 78% / reading 75%, grade A, #24 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 880 students, 4% FRL); Mohave Middle School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D+, #43 of 218 statewide, top 20%, 799 students, 31% FRL); Saguaro High School (math 37% / reading 41%, grade F, #78 of 381 statewide, top 20%, 1,466 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 24 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,727/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($96k/yr) (locally 288% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.