10866 Hodge Ln

Gravette, AR 72736

$485,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,704 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 275 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,943/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax + insurance: −$466
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-1,474/mo
• Annual: $-17,691/yr
• Cap rate: 2.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.44%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 0.40%
• Cash to close: $135,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $485k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (53.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (59.9% below list).
• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (59.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $52k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#25 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Gravette School District (rural): math 49% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #26 of 238 in AR (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Glenn Duffy Elementary School (530 students, 42% FRL); Gravette Middle School (math 59% / reading 54%, grade B, #17 of 201 statewide, top 8%, 486 students, 35% FRL); Gravette High School (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #43 of 292 statewide, top 15%, 616 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $485k implies a 1211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 60% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.